[Trending News] UFC 312 predictions, odds: Du Plessis-Strickland, Zhang-Suarez title fights highlight the card

Two more title fights are on the horizon for UFC 312 as Dricus Du Plessis will put his middleweight belt on the line for a rematch against Sean Strickland in the main event. Plus, we’ll see Zhang Weili test herself against the undefeated wrestler Tatiana Suarez for the strawweight belt.

I will be breaking down both of those matchups and more. As usual, if you have additional fights you want to chat about, please let me know in the comment section below.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

Our main event features a rematch in the middleweight division between the champion Du Plessis and his former foe Strickland, who originally held the title when these men first met in January 2024.

Du Plessis won a split decision on that evening though the fight was highly competitive, and I personally scored it 48-47 in favor of Strickland.

Watching the original fight back this week, I believe the dynamic is clear and I believe we are going to get a very similar matchup to the one we saw play out last year. Strickland is the superior technical boxer, and is going to work behind his jab, while Du Plessis will aim to come forward and throw power shots.

Strickland likes to work behind his shell where he’s able to fire off strikes at a high volume, but he doesn’t pack the same punch as Du Plessis, and wasn’t able to land any significant damage to Du Plessis in that first matchup, despite outlanding Du Plessis 173 to 137 in total.

Du Plessis may be at a technical disadvantage, but he throws with intent. It’s clear that judges will favor that whether he’s landing his strikes or not. This allows Du Plessis to earn the edge in rounds where he may actually be losing, as the optics of his strikes look superior to that of Strickland’s.

In Rounds 2 and 3, for example, Strickland outlanded Du Plessis to the head 49-24, but many had Du Plessis winning both rounds because of the power discrepancy. I personally had those rounds split 1-1.

Regardless, it creates this dynamic where Strickland simply outboxing Du Plessis isn’t enough. He did that in the first fight and lost, and it’s quite unlikely he’s going to separate himself further in head strikes than we saw in the first matchup, which totaled 157-81 in favor of Strickland.

At the same time, Strickland did win Rounds 1 and 5 very clearly, so, at best, the fight was 3-2 in favor of Du Plessis. In that first round, Strickland’s defense was on point, and he fully evaded the offense of Du Plessis. In the fifth round, Strickland pushed on the gas pedal and really showcased his volume upside, outlanding Du Plessis 53-35.

In the rematch, again I believe the dynamic is clear. Both fighters are very likely going to implement the same game plans.

Additionally, we saw Du Plessis land six takedowns to Strickland’s zero, which I think only played a minor role in the victory. Du Plessis was able to get in on the hips of Strickland and take him down quite easily on most attempts, but he was unable to control Strickland for any length of the time. In total, Du Plessis earned two minutes and eight seconds of control on six takedowns landed, which is quite poor.

I see the same dynamic playing out in this rematch, as Du Plessis should be the one pursuing takedowns, and he is likely to land some of them. However, Strickland is competent enough defensively to stand up, and he should limit or neutralize the grappling upside of Du Plessis.

On BetMGM, Du Plessis is favored at -210 which is an implied win rate of 67.74 percent, and I believe that’s too wide.

I see no reason to project this fight as anything other than competitive, and I wouldn’t think it’s crazy to favor Strickland outright due to his obvious striking volume upside. I do believe Du Plessis has a better chance to win by knockout, but Strickland has been knocked out twice in 71 UFC rounds, so I can’t project that outcome to occur at a super high rate.

Strickland is lined at +170 to win, and I think he’s a solid value play, though I may look for other options rather than betting him at this number. I think the bulk of Strickland’s win equity is tied into a competitive decision, so I wouldn’t mind chasing his decision prop at +250 or better.

I also wouldn’t mind betting this fight to go to decision at -175 if you don’t want to worry about the sweat of the scorecards.

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez

I’m extremely excited for Suarez to get her shot at the women’s strawweight belt against Zhang, though she’ll have a very tough challenge in front of her on Saturday.

Suarez is still undefeated at 11-0, and is one of the best wrestlers in the lower weight classes which has largely contributed to her success. She’s landing 6.2 takedowns per 15 minutes and has only lost one single round in the UFC.

Unfortunately, Suarez has been marred with injuries and will be coming off another 1.5-year layoff, which could be a benefit to Zhang this weekend. This is not the first time Suarez has faced setbacks or adversity. She once suffered a neck injury during her training for the 2012 Olympics, which ultimately led to a thyroid cancer diagnosis that forced her to pull out of all competition. Eventually, she regained her health and decided to dedicate herself to the sport of MMA, where she has been a largely dominant force.

Suarez is a super physical fighter, and is big for the weight class, which should continue to aid her in taking down her opponents. On top, she’s a strong control grappler and a high-level submission grappler. She has finished four of her seven UFC fights by submission, with another coming by TKO.

Among those wins was a total smash against the former flyweight champion Alexa Grasso, whom Suarez was able to submit in less than three minutes.

My concerns for Suarez will come when she’s unable to land takedowns. Her boxing is clearly not as strong as her wrestling, though her numbers check out fine. The last time we saw her forced to strike, she lost a round to Nina Nunes but still kept up a solid pace, landing and absorbing 29 distance strikes in that round.

She also looked a bit tired in that third round, back in 2019. She had a neck injury coming into that bout though, and was again forced out of competition with injuries from 2019 until 2023. We don’t fully know how Suarez’ cardio will look in a heated five-round battle.

Now taking on Zhang, a very well-rounded talent with championship experience, I would be fearful for Suarez if she’s unable to land takedowns at any point. Zhang is the more dangerous striker, and has shown legitimate volume upside in the past.

I don’t think Suarez will be in danger of getting KO’d quickly if forced to strike, but I don’t necessarily see her beating Zhang with her kickboxing over five rounds. Suarez needs takedowns.

From a tape and projection standpoint, I do think she will get them. Zhang only defends takedowns at 50 percent which is pretty poor, and she’s coming off a win in which she gave up three takedowns to Yan Xiaonan, a relatively poor wrestler.

Zhang also lost her championship fight to Rose Namajunas in 2021, in part because she gave up takedowns late and could not get back up.

Suarez is the best wrestler she will have fought by a mile, and Suarez should be able to land multiple takedowns in this fight. Especially early in the contest, I think it’s extremely likely that Suarez will end up in top position.

However, Zhang is still a competent grappler and may have the tools to survive. If the fight extends, can Suarez continually land takedowns over and over for five rounds? I’m unsure.

Suarez opened up as a sizable underdog in this matchup but she’s now sitting as the favorite on BetMGM at -120. I have some action on her already.

It is a scary bet though because of the layoff and injury history of Suarez so it’s not one I feel is a must-play. It would be reasonable to favor Zhang for her experience. However, Suarez is a truly elite wrestling talent for this division and Zhang has shown some weaknesses there in the past, so I lean toward Suarez continuing to find ground success and taking home the belt on Saturday.

Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira

Two big men will throw down on Saturday as the home crowd favorite Tafa will meet UFC debutant Teixeira.

Frankly, I’m excited for this matchup because my expectation is that it won’t last long, and I’m still eyeing the under 1.5 rounds prop at -175 or better.

Tallison Teixeira is aptly named, as he carries a massive 6-foot-7 frame with an 83-inch reach. Teixeira is 7-0 professionally and he has finished all of his opponents inside one round, six by knockout.

Teixeira looks like a pretty competent kickboxer, and clearly carries power in his strikes for such a heavy build. He’s also going to have a clear size advantage over most opponents.

Additionally, Teixeira is a black belt in jiu-jitsu though we haven’t seen any real tape of him fighting on the canvas, and I doubt his abilities to wrestle with any urgency. I also doubt his abilities to fight well past the first round and retain his cardio.

Furthermore, Teixeira doesn’t seem to have the best striking defense, as is the case with many men of his size. His chin is up in the air and ready to be countered. His aggressive nature will leave defensive openings, and it’s quite possible Tafa can capitalize on that.

Tafa is coming off a boring, wrestling-based loss to Karl Williams in which he was taken down seven times over 15 minutes. He’ll want to get back to his winning ways on Saturday, which should come in the form of an early KO.

Tafa has won four times in the UFC already, and each time has come by first-round KO. He is 6-feet tall with a 74-inch reach. He carries big power in his hands though, and landing those power shots is his primary path to victory.

This fight has chaos and violence written all over it and I’m hopeful we’ll see Teixeira continue to fight aggressively, which will surely lead to one man getting hurt. I’m honestly not sure who it will be though.

BetMGM has Teixeira lined as a -140 favorite, which I think is fair just given his size advantages. He’ll be able to kick at Tafa and touch him early in the fight, and that may very well lead to a KO. Tafa was knocked out only once in the UFC. It came in his UFC debut in the first round in 2019.

In theory, Teixeira may also have a grappling advantage and could find a submission on the mat if he pursues a wrestling attack.

Otherwise, I think it’s quite realistic to believe Tafa may crack Teixeira on the counter, which is why ultimately, I’m chasing the under 1.5 rounds prop here at -175 or better.

(Photo of Sean Strickland (left) and Dricus De Plessis: Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images)