![[Trending News] The markets, on alert by Nvidia](https://i3.wp.com/phantom-expansion.unidadeditorial.es/3e67b61ebbd519336f6cbd0b6335d18f/crop/21x51/2048x1402/resize/1200/f/webp/assets/multimedia/imagenes/2023/05/16/16842413214197.jpg?w=1200&resize=1200,0&ssl=1 "[Trending News] The markets, on alert by Nvidia")
Deepseek's shadow is elongated. The Nasdaq and even the crypts have activated the brake for the results that Nvidia will publish today. Analysts warn that implicit volatility suggests movements of up to 10% in their actions, equivalent to 300,000 million, a figure capable of unleashing turbulence in all markets.
Investors are still too recent the greatest collapse of the history of Wall Street in terms of capitalization, the one suffered by Nvidia on January 27. The irruption of China DeepSeek It sank almost 17% into the chips company, redoubtedsuddenly its stock market value at 565,000 million euros.
That half billion euros, together with the millionaire divestments of the technological sector, as a whole, They unleashed a 'rotation' in the markets. A month later Nvidia (-9.6% in the last three sessions) remains below the levels prior to Depseek, as well as Nasdaq, deflated 5% in the previous four days. In return, gold and European Variable rent quote in the area of historical maximums.
This rotation can be truncated, or consolidated, with Results that Nvidia will publish today at the close of the Wall Street session. The Chips company will become the epicenter of the market, and the focus of the greatest tensions. Not surprisingly, “this results report scheduled for February 26 It will be the most important in Nvidia's history “because “not only will it show us how much demand it exists, but it will give us a roadmap for the future of artificial intelligence “, Manuel Pinto, Market Analyst.
He market consensus It predicts an interannual growth of 72% in NVIDIA sales, up to 38,000 million dollars, with gross margins of 73.5%, and a 63.5% improvement in benefits. Even in spite of the high of these planned increases, Bankinter analysts warn that “remember that The market always seems littledeliver what you deliver. “
The expectation is maximum, without losing sight of the growing threat of Asia. “As China Build its computer and cloud ecosystems, Nvidia faces a growing uncertainty Regarding its long -term income from this critical market, “says Lale Akoner, an Anoro global market analyst.
The Portocolom AV investment team warns in this regard that “everything you communicate will be analyzed in detail after Depseek's irruption, since Any negative note could cause a new benefits.”
In an attempt to delimit the possible reaction in Nvidia, Manuel Pinto highlights that “the high implicit volatility suggests that Nvidia actions could range 9% after the results“This 9%, as Kutxabank analysts nuance, contemplate” movements in both directions “, both up and down.
A 9% bandage in the second largest company in the world in the stock market would be equivalent to a movement of about 300,000 million euros, sufficient amount to activate turbulence In all markets. Not only Wall Street and in particular the Technological Nasdaq have extreme caution before the results with its running streak.
The Risk aversion They generate the results of Nvidia have also aggravated the puncture of the crypto market, protagonist yesterday of one of its worst days of the year. Bitcoin became defined at least three months, with falls close to 10%. The descents far exceeded the double digits in other large cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, XRP and Solana.
Complicated environment
The magnitude of the increases recorded in recent times by the crypto market favor this correction. In the stock market, the amount of accumulated capital gains also leaves an extensionor margin for the collection of benefits in the quotation of Nvidia, and in the Wall Street assembly.
Bankinter analysts indicate about this point that “it seems that the historical maximums achieved last week have Awaked to the State of Complacency State in which he was since the beginning of the year. As we have been warning, the bags have had an excessively good year start, and therefore this correction enters the reasonable“.
The increasingly reduced expectations of new declines of interest rates by the Federal Reserve blow especially against the technological sector. Julius Baer believes that “The Fed will refrain from cutting interest rates in 2025an opinion that is gradually setting up as a consensus. “
Without new monetary stimuli, analysts digest advanced plans by Donald Trump to apply new Commercial restrictions on technological exports to China. From Etoro they remember that “companies like Huawei (AInd chips) and Alibaba (T-Head) are working intensely for Replace Nvidia domain in China's infrastructure. “
The days prior to the results of NVIDIA have not only provided news on the side of commercial restrictions on chips. The market has received signals from a possible excess offer from data centers, a key technology associated with the demand for artificial intelligence.
For and against
Analysts that are most clearly positioned on Nvidia move divergent positions. The position of Antonio Fernández Quesada, Investment Director of Tesys EAF, is clear: “We do not know whether or not we will lose excellent investment opportunities and NVIDIA can become an omission error, but we prefer not to invest whether we believe that the price can be excessive and too optimistic expectations.”
The reluctance also predominate in José Manuel Marín Cebrián. The founder of Fortuna SFP prefers to position itself in Europe by estimating that “in the United States the technological ones are diet after results received with coldness by investors. Not in vain, not in vain, When you pay a surcharge (per 30), you need something exceptional, something that Deepseek has made complicated. “
But after the recent correction, Nvidia can find supports to your price. This is how Manuel Pinto estimates when identifying “three factors that we believe will support in its quote “.
The first is the relentless increase in Capital expenditure In artificial intelligence by large technological ones, a catalyst taking into account that “Nvidia is the undisputed winner of these amounts of investment.”
Second Manuel Pinto cites the Stargate project of 500,000 million dollars launched by the Trump administration, and “in which Nvidia could capture more than 170,000 million dollars only in GPU sales.”
The third and final support factor would be that “the market response to its chips Blackwell It has been extraordinary, since all planned production is completely compromised for the next 12 months before the series manufacturing begins. “
He market consensus It also finds more reasons for optimism than for pessimism. According to the data collected by LSE, an overwhelming majority of the firms that cover the value, 57 of 63, advises 'buy' Nvidia shares, and the remaining six entities propose to maintain the investment.
From tonight, Nvidia's price could ratify, or dilute, this optimism of the market consensus.