[Trending News] Strong rain and instability to continue, followed by sudden change? Weather forecast in March 2025 in Portugal – Learn the details!

March 2025 will be a curious month… On the one hand we have a lock regime, apparently installed, on the other hand, anticyclone movements will allow constant changes in atmospheric dynamics

For that reason, For this month, a more accurate forecast is not yet possible, and so, for now, we will only be discussing some possibilitiesand we will update this forecast as soon as possible!

For now, we can start by seeing the forecast of EPS (ECMWF model), with the rain expected until mid -March – where we can see very high values ​​to the south (confirming we would have rain near the average of March immediately in the first half, in the southern region)

The north seems to be much less foreseen rain, which is not surprising, given the expected blockade regime – but we will already talk about uncertainty!

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Time in March, first fortnight – Continental Portugal

The first week of March seems more defined, at least for mainland Portugal – we foresee, with good confidence, isolated depressions constantly near our territory, in the one that could be a true parade of depressionsas we had already referred to

Already This Thursday there were some floods in some parts of the country, particularly in the region of Lisbon, with rain that actually surprised! – In some places it surpassed the 20L \ m2 in an hour

This situation is up to 8 \ 9 March, and Carnival day is still involved in uncertainty-in fact all March 2-4, although there is now 70 to 90% of the likelihood of deposits, at least in the south of the countrymuch less likely to the north (we believe in dry weather)

That said, around March 6, the more day less day, there will be an intensification of instability, which can reach more regions againsomething that can still persist until near the 10th

After that, and according to most models and ensembles, including the very reliable ECMWF-EPs, perhaps stability comes for a few days – Is it to stay? We'll see!

We can see that, according to ECMWF, for the period 3-10, the presence of depressions will be the dominant factor – while for March 10 to 17 a period of new blockade, and more anticyclone, seems to arise, as referred to

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Second half of March in mainland Portugal…

The second half of March should be marked by something different, at least according to current forecasts – although there is great uncertainty, as the polar vortex can effectively come to “collapse” in the middle of March!

MJO, during the first week of March, could enter phase 2, with convection focused on the Indian Ocean

This is typically a Trainer of a reinforcement of anticyclone in the Atlantic – but, while the polar vortex suffers great disturbances, makes a prediction difficult

However The combination of MJO phases 2+3, followed by weakened polar vortex has been linked in the past to drastic changes in time in Portugal, and can lead to something we have not had in 2025, consistently – colder \ snow

We talk more seriously, not 10-15ºC, which is what we have had… and that, frankly, for winter, is mild…

Obviously For now they are predictions in the long term, which do not corroborate what the models show, but after a brief stable period (brief = maybe 10 days) between March 10 and 20, it is possible that the arrival of spring, in the last dozen March, can bring… the winter we have not had so far

Or is the “collapsed” polar vortex really a sign of this, the arrival of an early spring to keep up? It doesn't seem… but… we'll have to go with

Like this You should have a second fortnight that should start stable, and even remember spring effectively, but remember that winter can still come with some strength! Maybe even April will live up to the saying “April, Águas a thousand” – undoubtedly interesting atmospheric standards on the way!

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Time in March on the islands

Very difficult predictions for the islands, as atmospheric regimes about the Atlantic are undefined

Howevertaking into account the current predictions, the anticyclone must be effectively more present about the Azores – as it is at this time

The probability of a non -+\ standard through February should keep the time relatively stable, but, For the second fortnight, we have to see how the polar vortex will be disturbed, and where depressions will arise – being possible a period again, colder and unstable in the Azores from March 20 onwards

Until then there should be no major changes, some occasional showers, but reasonably stable time states, overall

In Madeira the forecast is not very different from mainland Portugal – we foresee that depressions continue to influence the time of the time until March 10, or near that day, with deposits almost every day – and then a more stable period from 10 to 20 Marchusually with sun

It will then be IWe see how to evolve the time of March 20 onwards, and what is the influence of an inevitable change of standard – at the moment a more accurate prediction is not possible, so we have not advanced, for now, with nothing more concrete – And it is better to wait for an information update!

Monthly seasonal forecast models, such as CFSV2, in recent updates, They show below average rain in the Azores, and something above in Madeira – consistent with what we have been mentioning – but noticing that, for example, in mainland Portugal, the forecast indicates under average rain, implying that this model predicts that after day 10, stability remains in our country – Certainly possible, but very uncertain!

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Forecast summary, uncertainties, and planned updates

In a summary we can conclude that the first week of March will be unstable in mainland Portugal, especially to the south, with a lot of rain, quite beneficial!

We can also conclude that, In the North and Center, the rain will be much less significant, and much more intermittent!

After March 10, and for a few days, time should stabilizebeing, with an unstable polar vortex from there, know how to evolve – the predictions of the models indicate the possibility of something more stable until the end of the month – however we are not so confident in this scenario…

In Madeira the scenario is similar – almost a copy of mainland Portugal, both in the first dozen days and second – since depressions will be precisely between mainland and wood – affecting both territories in a similar way!

In the Azores, under anticyclonic effect, the first half of March will be relatively dry – with the second half an unknown, despite the models predict that the rain will continue to be little, All scenarios are on the table

Thus, in general, we foresee Precipitation possibly above average in the south of the continental territory, based on the first 10 unstable and potential days for a few more days of precipitation later. We foresee probability of normal rain in the rest of the territory, although it may lean to either side, depending on the last days – In fact the first fortnight does not bring much rain to the north – it will all depend on what comes after

In Madeira we foresee something very similar – a lot of rain initially, then… soon we see!

In the Azores, on the other hand, the scenarios effectively indicate rain below normal – But just a slight deviation in the positioning of the anticyclone and the rain quickly returns, and in force

We will update this information soon, at the same time we will talk about spring in general – perhaps near the end of the first week of March

For now what you should know is that, If you have something planned abroad until March 10… Better to have an umbrella by hand, especially if you live south or wood-and if you can postpone for the period 10-18-18 from March… it's really the best

Thank you so much for reading this forecast and analysis, which we hope you will be useful! We reinforce that to get the most reliable forecast, it must remain aware of our updates, as there will certainly be changes in the forecast, which should be aware!

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