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A powerful storm system will spawn severe weather that’s likely to produce tornadoes, widespread damaging winds and hail beginning Monday night and Tuesday in the South before spreading to the East Coast on Wednesday.
Here’s a look a the latest timing and threats for the severe weather each day. For details on blizzard conditions this storm will bring to the Plains and Midwest, see the link below.
(MORE: Blizzard Conditions Expected In Plains, Midwest)
Severe Outbreak Possible
Through Early Tuesday Morning
-The combination of an intensifying low-pressure system and increasing Gulf moisture will allow severe weather to first develop overnight Monday night into early Tuesday in the Southern Plains, particularly from central Oklahoma to north-central Texas. That includes Oklahoma City to near and northwest of Dallas-Fort Worth.
-Large hail, wind damage and some tornadoes could accompany those storms.
Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.
Tuesday-Tuesday Night
-NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a part of the South from eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the lower Mississippi Valley, Alabama and western Georgia for a threat of severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night, shown in the map below. This includes Jackson, Mississippi, Little Rock, Arkansas, and Shreveport, Louisiana.
-Severe storms could be ongoing in the morning in the western edge of the threat area in eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. From there, the threat will expand eastward with a squall line through the day and into the evening. Some supercells could develop ahead of this line, as well.
-Widespread damaging winds and tornadoes are the biggest threats, especially in areas shaded red below. The threat of a strong tornado (EF2 or greater damage) is most likely in southern Arkansas, the northern half of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle.
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Tuesday-Tuesday Night Severe Weather Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)
Wednesday
-This severe weather threat will last into Wednesday ahead of the cold front in parts of the East, particularly from Delaware and Maryland to far northern Florida. That includes Charleston, South Carolina, Raleigh, North Carolina, Richmond, Virginia, and Washington, D.C.
-Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible in these areas Wednesday.
Wednesday Severe Weather Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)
Flood Threat
-In addition to the threat of severe thunderstorms, locally heavy rain is possible in parts of the Midwest and South.
-This could lead to local flash flooding, particularly in areas recently soaked or flooded earlier in February in Kentucky and Tennessee. Fortunately, this does not appear to be nearly the slow-moving, heavy rain event that happened in mid-February, though some areas could still pick up at least 2 inches of rain in a short amount of time.
This outlook, from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, shows the chance of heavy rain that would trigger flash flooding, in increasing categories of threat, through the period specified.
Make sure your severe weather safety plan is ready, including having multiple ways of receiving National Weather Service watches and warnings and knowing where to seek safe shelter if a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning is issued.
Check back to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.
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