Fresh off of a huge win over the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night, the Miami Heat are making a real push to be the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference this season.
Now, the Heat host the Indiana Pacers and Tyrese Haliburton, who blew out the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday by 20 points.
Miami won the first meeting between these teams this season, but the Pacers have taken the last two by nine and 13 points. Indiana is looking to hold on to a top-four seed in the East, but can it hold off another playoff hopeful?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my best bets for Friday night.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
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Pacers Injury Report
Heat Injury Report
Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet
Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet
This could be a big game for Tyler Herro – especially if one of Andrew Wiggins or Bam Adebayo sits. Miami is already in need of an offensive spark this season, and Herro is averaging a team-high 24.0 points per game.
Indiana’s fast pace and average defensive rating (15th in the NBA) should give Herro a chance to pour in buckets on Friday, and he does have 28 and 20-point games against the Pacers already this season.
Miami is one of the worst teams in the NBA as a home underdog this season, covering the spread in just two of seven games in that spot.
The Pacers feature one of the better offenses in the NBA that plays at an uptempo clip, a nightmare for a Heat team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in offensive rating over its last 10 games.
Indiana has won the last two meetings between these teams fairly easily, and the Pacers are now over .500 on the road after not being able to buy a win early on in the season.
If there’s one stat you need to know about these teams, it’s this: Over their last 10 games, the Pacers rank in the top half of the NBA in offensive, defensive and net rating while the Heat rank in the bottom 10 in all of those categories, except they are 15th in defensive rating.
This is a team that thrives on low-scoring games where its offense can keep pace. That won’t be the case with this Pacers team, which is 10th in the league in points per game.
Pick: Pacers -3.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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