[Trending News] Liverpool’s Premier League title run-in: Analysing every game

If there were any doubts about whether the Premier League title run-in had started, the edgy atmosphere at Anfield for the closing stages of Liverpool’s 2-1 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers dispelled them.

Arne Slot now has an idea of what the title run-in may feel like on Merseyside, as he confronts the final third of the Premier League season seven points clear of Arsenal, Liverpool’s only serious challengers.

Comparing the two clubs’ remaining fixtures suggests there is little between them — in terms of average position of their opponents, Liverpool (10.8) have a fractionally easier sequence than Arsenal (10.5)

But that does not tell the whole story. If we take each side’s remaining away fixtures, the average position of Liverpool’s opponents rises to 9.3 as five of them are in the top 10. Arsenal’s is 11.8, but they have to go to Anfield and third-placed Nottingham Forest. At home, Liverpool have more favourable fixtures: 12 to Arsenal’s 9.4.

The Athletic looked at each league fixture Liverpool have remaining and assessed the positives and negatives ahead of those matches.

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Aston Villa (Wednesday, A)

Current position: 9th
Liverpool’s last five results v Villa (from left): WDWDW

Reason to be cheerful: Goalscoring has not been an issue for Liverpool at Villa Park or against Unai Emery’s side. They have scored three in each of their last two visits and they have not lost since the remarkable 7-2 defeat in 2020. They dominated the fixture earlier this season (2-0) and will need to impose themselves again. 

Reason to be fearful: A midweek match under the lights at Villa Park is no easy task for any team. They have been an inconsistent side, but disappointing results have largely come away from home. Villa haven’t lost at home in all competitions since the end of October.

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Manchester City (Sunday, A)

Current position: 4th
Last five results: WDDLW

Reason to be cheerful: This is not the Pep Guardiola side Liverpool are used to visiting at the Etihad, and the stakes are very different. So often a potential title decider, the only team here that have title pretensions are Liverpool. Slot’s side were dominant in the reverse fixture and while City looked more like themselves in the 4-0 victory over Newcastle last weekend, they have been plagued by inconsistency all season.

Reason to be fearful: The Etihad is Liverpool’s kryptonite, having not won there in the league since Jurgen Klopp’s first season in charge in 2015. They still have players of high quality such as Erling Haaland, and January addition Nico Gonzalez’s performance against Newcastle offered them the sort of control they’ve missed in Rodri’s absence.

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Newcastle (Feb 26, H)

Current position: 7th
Last five results: DWWWW

Reason to be cheerful: History is in Liverpool’s favour: they are unbeaten against Newcastle in 16 matches and have not lost to them at Anfield in the league since 1994. The preview of the Carabao Cup final will be another tough contest, but Liverpool should be much better prepared and know what to expect from their opponents. Despite Liverpool being below their best in the 3-3 draw earlier this season, they still were only a late goalkeeping misjudgement away from winning.

Reason to be fearful: Alexander Isak. He’s been Newcastle’s X factor all season and is capable of winning games on his own. That draw in December was one of the toughest games of the season and Liverpool struggled against Newcastle’s aggressive approach. You’d expect the game plan to remain the same as Liverpool reach the end of a gruelling five games in just over two weeks. They can’t afford to be sluggish again.

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Southampton (Mar 8, H)

Current position: 20th
Last five results: WDWWW

Reason to be cheerful: Southampton are competing to be statistically the worst side in Premier League history. On paper, this is Liverpool’s easiest remaining fixture remaining by a distance.

Reason to be fearful: There shouldn’t be any. Complacency is the only real enemy for Slot and his players here, even if Southampton did make life awkward for them on the south coast in November. Liverpool need to kill the game quickly and offer no encouragement.

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Everton (Apr 2, H)

Current position: 14th
Last five results: DLWWD

Reason to be cheerful: Liverpool have dominated this fixture at Anfield in recent years. They have a score to settle, too, after James Tarkowski’s last-minute equaliser, Abdoulaye Doucoure’s antagonising celebrations and their frustrations with the refereeing performance in the return game earlier this month.

Reason to be fearful: It’s the Merseyside derby and another opportunity for their closest rivals — in fine form under David Moyes — to derail their title charge. It will be full of emotion, but Liverpool need to rise above it and play the game on their terms.

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Fulham (Apr 5, A)

Current position: 8th
Last five results: DWWWD

Reason to be cheerful: Liverpool were able to dominate Fulham in the second half of the 2-2 draw this season despite only having 10 men and haven’t lost at Craven Cottage since 2011.

Reason to be fearful: Marco Silva sets up his side shrewdly, and they have quality in attacking areas. Adama Traore’s pace, for one thing, will pose a test to Andy Robertson on Liverpool’s left flank. Only two teams have lost fewer league games this season.

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West Ham (Apr 12, H)

Current position: 16th
Last five results: WDWWW

Reason to be cheerful: Liverpool have played West Ham twice this season, once in the league and once in the Carabao Cup. They have scored 10 goals in total and utterly dominated.

Reason to be fearful: Hopefully, they haven’t used all their goals up… That said, it will be a different version of West Ham with Graham Potter now in charge and they do have a squad sprinkled with attacking quality that can produce a moment like Matheus Cunha did for Wolves. Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen, in particular, are threats that need to be guarded against.

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Leicester City (Apr 19, A)

Current position: 19th
Last five results: WWWWL

Reason to be cheerful: Leicester, along with the rest of the promoted sides, are staring relegation in the face. They struggle to score and concede goals — and Ruud van Nistelrooy’s tenure has failed to provide an uplift.

Reason to be fearful: Jordan Ayew’s early goal in the December fixture was an alarming moment and Slot’s side struggled to break the away side down in a limp first half. The relegation battle always leads to a few shock results; Liverpool just need to make sure it does not come against them.

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Tottenham (Apr 26, H)

Current position: 12th
Last five results: WWLWW

Reason to be cheerful: Ange Postecoglou’s side were outplayed, outclassed and dispatched earlier this month as Liverpool booked their place in the Carabao Cup final with a dominant 4-0 semi-final second-leg victory. Spurs will always cough up chances and Liverpool’s attack should be licking their lips.

Reason to be fearful: Tottenham should arrive at Anfield with many of the key players they have been without in recent weeks and months, especially in defence. That will make them a different proposition to the patched-up side that recently came to Merseyside and, for all their frailties, this is still a team that can score goals.

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Chelsea (May 3, A)

Current position: 6th
Last five results: WWDDD

Reason to be cheerful: After looking like potential title contenders in 2024, Chelsea have faded in recent months and are fighting to secure a Champions League spot instead. They’ve had problems defensively and in goal, and striker Nicolas Jackson’s injury means they carry less of a threat, with Cole Palmer unable to carry the load alone. They look a shadow of the outfit that dominated periods of the game at Anfield in October.

Reason to be fearful: Stamford Bridge is always a tough away trip regardless of form and Liverpool’s record there is mediocre. There is an unpredictability about Chelsea on a week-to-week basis. Their talent means collective and individual brilliance is possible and they were one of the toughest tests Slot and his players have faced this season.

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Arsenal (May 10, H)

Current position: 2nd
Last five results: DLDDL

Reason to be cheerful: If Liverpool were able to maintain the lead they currently have, then that would put all the pressure on Arsenal to come to Anfield and win — something they haven’t done since 2012. There is also a world where it may come too late and the league has already been decided.

Reason to be fearful: This could be the title decider. If there are twists and turns that favour Arsenal, right it could all come down to this game. Remember Michael Thomas and 1989? A 2-0 Arsenal win at Anfield snatched the First Division in the final game of the season. It won’t be as dramatic, but it could have the same consequence.

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Brighton & Hove Albion (May 18, A)

Current position: 10th
Last five results: WWDLD

Reason to be cheerful: Aside from hoping the previous game has gone to plan, Brighton are a side that want to go toe-to-toe with opponents in a footballing sense. The tactical tweaks and second-half changes Slot made in the 2-1 victory in November changed the game. It was an important lesson and it should help preparations.

Reason to be fearful: Fabian Hurzeler’s side outplayed Liverpool in the first 45 minutes of the match earlier this season and they were unfortunate to not have a bigger lead at half-time, repeatedly slicing through their opponents and creating some excellent chances. Brighton are inconsistent, but if their attackers are firing then they are a force.

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Crystal Palace (May 25, H)

Current position: 13th
Last five results: WLWDD

Reason to be cheerful: Hopefully this will be a day of celebration. No phone checking, no anxiety, no Ilkay Gundogan and Manchester City causing mayhem. Even if Liverpool need a result, they will be strong favourites — and on final days of recent seasons, have always done their job, even if it has led to nothing.

Reason to be fearful: Palace’s 1-0 victory last season was the start of Liverpool’s slide out of title contention. They’ve had a strangely prominent role in some of Liverpool’s biggest recent setbacks, coming from 3-0 down to draw 3-3 as the title ebbed away in 2013-14, spoiling Steven Gerrard’s Anfield farewell by winning 3-1 in 2015 and inflicting a first Liverpool defeat for Klopp a year later.

(Top photo: Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)