[Trending News] Survey: The winners, the losers and bad news for Pedro Nuno Santos

AD is being affected by the controversy surrounding the prime minister, demonstrate the first polls after the beginning of the political crisis motivated by their family business, Spinumviva. The government support coalition descended about two percentage points in just one week, being closer to the PS that grew 1.6 points. PSD and CDs get 33.5% of voting intentions and the PS rises to 28.8%. Already the arrival descends from 17.4%to 13.5%, the IL rises from 5.1%to 6.7%, CDU descends from 3.6%to 3%, the block rises to 2.9%, free drops to seventh place, with 2.4%and PAN rises to 1.9%.

Concerned pythagorean survey (made for TSF, JN, TVI and CNN Portugal) that happened in two moments. A first week before the crisis began, between February 23 and 27, and a second during the week of the censorship motion and announcement of the confidence motion, between 3 and 6 March.

The polls also point to a loss of popularity by Luís Montenegro that has 46% of negative opinions (an increase of eight points) and 47% of positive opinions (a fall of five percentage points).

José Filipe Pinto, a professor at Lusófona University, advises “a lot of weighting and reservation” in the conclusions to draw from this poll as the questionnaires for weeks took place for weeks with many striking moments that can make the opinion of the questioned. “We do not know how many people responded before the motion of censorship and how many voted later and how many voted before or after knowing that there will be a motion of trust,” explains the expert in statements to SATURDAY. Is the race for legislative elections already launched?

The largest losers

In José Filipe Pinto's opinion there is no doubt that there are two major parties in this poll and a party that lost by not knowing how to capitalize on a moment that seemed so promising to the opposition. “The main losers are Luís Montenegro and, to a lesser extent AD and the government, and arrives. The PS despite growing in voting intentions is a shy growth,” he says.

The poll was made at a time when confidence in Luís Montenegro is down due to the controversies that surround him and the company that now belongs to the children only and “this was reflected in the results of the government.” But while Montenegro's approval rate has dropped almost eight percentage points, the drop in AD voting intentions is much softer.

“What we see is that the PS has not exponentially capitalized this fall of AD despite having achieved a slight increase,” says the university professor, stressing that despite the “technical draw”, AD continues to gather more voting intentions than the main opposition party.

And the main loser of this survey is really coming with a fall of almost four percentage points. “The arrival managed, in the last electoral act, a very high vote, but at this moment there is hardly room to grow,” believes the politologist who stresses that the Portuguese did not reach the state of discontent in the system that functioned as a trampoline in other parts of the West. And this fall now in the polls, believes José Filipe Pinto, may be related to successive controversies that have affected relevant figures of the arrival, such as the case of Deputy Miguel Arruda, suspected of stealing bags at the airport, or cases of pedophilia and abuse that hang over elements of the party or (“although in a smooth way,” says the Lusophone deputy teacher .

“Of course the arrival will remain the third political force, but it will possibly continue to go down in voting intentions,” believes the expert.

But then how is it explained that André Ventura's popularity remains unchanged, unlike Luis Montenegro? “It is that the arrival has its irreducible voters, who vote for this project by André Ventura and André Ventura regardless of any development.”

The winners

In José Filipe Pinto's understanding these polls show only one winner. “It is clearly the liberal initiative.”

The Liberal Party rises, in the expert's understanding, because there is not only a recognition between the party foundations that it reached a phase of maturity that adds to its credibility, but also that presents itself as an alternative to those who suspect Luís Montenegro and AD and also does not want to give a vow on arrival. “More than a matter of ideology, IL rises because it is a party with some reliability, it is reaping the laurels of its balanced, thoughtful position, of criticizing but without falling into destructive criticism and therefore the electorate begins to recognize him a suitability and competence that can be translated into votes,” he argues.

And could it be enough for AD to try IL with a pre-election coalition? “This would be good for AD, because the electoral system in Portugal favors large parties and coalitions, but could damage the IL that would gain more to go as an isolated force,” believes José Filipe Pinto.

Analysis of the possibilities pointed out by the survey

José Filipe Pinto considers that the main conclusions that can be taken from this poll is that, as last year, there is still a major right in the country. But that most still need it, most likely to arrive, to be an absolute majority.

And on the left? “Pedro Nuno Santos realizes, with these results, that the conditions are not gathered to reissue the spring, even in new molds with the political participation of parties such as the free, the BE and eventually the PCP,” explains the politologist who stresses that despite the slight climb of free, BE and PCP continue to lose voters according to these voting intentions.

“This scenario is worrying for Pedro Nuno Santos and the PS because they failed to approve the distrust raised by the prime minister's assets.” This whole scenario should imply a sharp climb of the main opposition party and what we see is that Pedro Nuno Santos cannot ride a wave of distrust and seems to enthusiastic as someone who represents an alternative project ” mean the end of your mandate ahead of the party.

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