[Trending News] Probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 reaches the earth doubles in 2032

Article Originally Posted in Turkish

The asteroid designated by 2024 YR4 has been being observed for several weeks. Discovered in late 2024 by the Hurtado River Observatory in Chile, it is no cause for concern, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).

However, new NASA remarks allowed to increase the probability of this celestial body to reach Earth on December 22, 2032. Previously, the space agency had estimated the risk by about 1%.

Although the risk is still quite low, scientists continue to closely follow the asteroid's trajectory.

The 2024 YR4 will remain visible until April. However, it will continue to be monitored by terrestrial telescopes of the international asteroid warning network. After April, the asteroid will become too sized to observe until June 2028.

The James Webb space telescope should determine the exact size of the asteroid in March 2025 to clarify collision forecasts. Currently, it is estimated that the space rock diameter is 40 to 90 meters.

The threat represented by the asteroid was determined as 3 degrees on the Tornium scale.

A classification of 3 (yellow level) means that this asteroid is likely to reach the earth, but it will have a localized impact and not global damage. It is also possible that the probability of the impact of asteroids of this category can be reset to zero as a result of more accurate calculations.

According to Scitechdaily, the scale works as follows:

0-1 grau: The probability of an impact of asteroid is negligible.

2-4 degrees: An event that needs to be monitored but not yet worrying.

5+: more serious risk requiring international planning.

What damage can it cause asteroid 2024 YT4?

If the data scientists collected over 2024 YT4 is correct, the asteroid is the same size as Tunguska, which hit Earth in 1908. Therefore, the effect of impact can be felt at local level. However, the asteroid has the potential to cause serious damage to the impact site.

Tunguska is the biggest impact of asteroid recorded on human history. However, we know that there were many greater impacts in prehistoric times. The most remarkable is Chicxulub, which took place about 66 million years ago and ended the reign of dinosaurs, eliminating two thirds of life on earth.

Tunguska did not have such a violent impact. By exploding in the atmosphere over a little -populated region of Russia, the asteroid released the same energy as the explosion of 50 million tons of TNT.

According to Space.com, the impact rocked about 80 million trees in an area of ​​2,150 square kilometers, killing three people.

“If the 2024 YT4 is made of rocky material, it can explode in the air and reach the ground like a fireball,” said David Rankin, Catalina Asteroids hunter and engineer Sky Survey.

“If it is made of iron, it will cross the atmosphere without major problems and form an impact crater. Therefore, it is essential to understand not only orbit, but also its composition and size.”

Rankin and astronomers from around the world will continue to collect as much information as possible on the Asteroid 2024 YT4 by 2032.